Lesson Objectives: Comprehend threats to regional stability and US security in Sub-Saharan Africa

	Sign In Sign-Up

Lesson Objectives: Comprehend threats to regional stability and US security in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Desired Learning Outcomes:

Explain the origins of political instability, poverty, and conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Explain steps Africa needs to take for successful economic and democratic development.
Identify required changes in US policy to encourage political and economic improvements.

Questions for Discussion:
DLO I. Explain the origins of political instability, poverty, and conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa .

1. Which factors most affect the lack of development in Sub-Saharan Africa?

History of lack of self-sustainment with internal markets
Political turbulence
Patronage vice open markets & free trade – "Patronage often is the main basis for stability in autocratic regimes, but economic growth is contingent on reform that undercuts patronage and corruption. For Africa’s "strong men" – if they resist reform, pressure from below eventually will become unbearable. But if they undertake serious reform, they lose their patronage-based support."
Decreasing foreign aid, investment, & lending
Humanitarian crises – Refugee problems
Weak political institutions
Weak militaries
Excessive national debt
Poor, unskilled/untrained work force

"The combination of weak infrastructure, corruption, and a labor force that lags behind that in most other parts of the world in terms of education and health retards economic growth and leave Africa dependent on foreign aid." Metz, pg 385

Africa covers more than 11.7 million square mile and has more than 600 million inhabitants. There is no single Africa; rather there are 54 different countries (48 below the Sahara), and over 700 distinct nations or ethnic groups with as many languages and dialects. Moreover, understanding where Sub-Saharan Africa might go depends on an understanding of where it has been--historically, politically, economically, and culturally. Disease, poverty, and over population are other factors to throw in. Bottom line is Africa is too diverse to apply uniform policy prescriptions. Its societies are moving in multiple directions

54 countries in Africa, 48 below the Sahara

All nation-states are challenged by devolution of state authority to local actors

Pre-colonial political organizations were based on villages, city-states, nation-states, empires but defined nation-states were demarcated during colonization (1885-1902); in the 1960’s after independence, nation-states were defined politically and geographically by the European colonizers’ boundaries; biggest problem is the geographically there are few natural borders and the borders that are in place do not take into account the many ethnic groups now bound into a nation-state

Sovereignty is characterized by unquestioned physical control over defined territory, administrative presence throughout the country, and allegiance of the population à in Africa, most colonial states do not extend administrative control beyond the capital city, boundary conflicts are frequent, and most wars are intra-state in nature

Economically, Africa’s economies are a result of the colonial period, oriented toward export of raw materials and highly vulnerable to outside shocks; Africa’s participation in global trade represent 1.9% of world trade in 1997

Sub Saharan Africa receives only 5% of all direct foreign investment flowing to developing countries and half of that goes to Nigeria to extract oil

Because of extreme social inequalities, any democratically elected government is under intense pressure to redistribute wealth, reapportionment will engender conflict between would-be winners and prospective losers

Over the past 30 years there has been change in the military balance between state and society; most African states have few weapons at independence but weapons are cheap in the post Cold War world and thus armies in Rwanda, Ethiopia and Chad have challenged African states, and private security outfit have developed and fought on both sides of conflicts (Executive Outcome – South Africa; Sandline – British)

2. How do security interests differ among states in Sub-Saharan Africa?

South Africa's internal security and regional military effectiveness are directly tied to its economic fortunes. Significant resources are needed to restructure and retrain the South African Police Service to handle growing crime while abandoning its apartheid-era militaristic practices.

Few African states can significantly affect sub regional development because of their territorial size, population, military, and/or regional economy and strategic resources; exceptions are South Africa in the South Africa, and Nigeria in West Africa

Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) is in the center of the continent, has vast mineral wealth, borders 8 other countries

Other states that can be influential but not as strong

In South Africa: Angola and Zimbabwe

In East Africa: Uganda, Kenya, Sudan

In West Africa: Ghana, Senegal

Failed states include Somalia, Rwanda, and Congo-Kinshasa

Clinton administration’s priority has been for cultivation of strategically located, pro-US regimes capable of maintaining stability, regardless of how their leader gained (or seized) and maintains power

3. How do religious and tribal differences affect stability in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Pre-colonial ethnic conflicts, exploited by local political forces, have emerged with a vengeance

With few exceptions, African states seldom use military force against their neighbors, instead relying on indirect aggression and proxy violence; and today, most indirect aggression and proxy violence is part of religious, ethnic, and personal conflict

Ideology and ethnicity are often used to mobilize support and define "us" and "them"

Personal patronage and loyalty are central features of African politics; problems severe when such favors are distributed by a favored ethnic group

Regional wars are characterized by clashes of rebel forces and national armies from multiple countries

Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda, now a minority government

In Nigeria, a regional based opposition movement opposes the central government

Sudan, an armed rebel group threatens succession

Liberia and Somalia have dissolved nations into anarchy

In South Africa, African National Congress (ANC) has two major minority parties, Inkatha Freedom Party (Zulu-based) and National Party (white)

4. What threat does HIV/AIDS pose to US national security and to African security?

Stats, Pg 386-7, Metz

In 1997, an estimated 2.3 million people died of AIDs worldwide. 83 percent of AIDs deaths were in Sub-Saharan Africa. Two-thirds of the world's HIV population, some 23 million people live in the region. If the trend continues the population in this region will start decreasing instead of increasing.

The statistics are daunting: 83% of AIDS deaths are in Sub-Saharan Africa; 2/3rds of the world’s HIV population live in Sub-Saharan Africa; 1 in every 13 people between the ages of 15 and 48 will die of the disease

36 percent rate of HIV infection among the adult population in Botswana. Six other countries have rates greater than 20 percent. They are Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

AIDS is expected to reduce Africa’s population in the next 10-15 years; AIDS will cause negative population growth in several African nations by the year 2003. Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe will experience negative population growth, ranging from 0.1 to 0.3 percent in the next three years, according to data compiled for USAID by the International Programs Center of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Life expectancy is 50 years of age in SSA, in Sierra Leone – 34 years, in Rwanda – 23 years

AIDS in particularly damaging to development; farms are idle for lack of workers, in Zimbabwe businesses and university departments have closed as a result of AIDS, 25% of the police force in South Africa has AIDS/HIV;

Best strategies to control AIDS: 1) a change in sexual behavior is "essential," 2) national leadership of the effort is important, D) successful programs rely on a partnership of community organizations, government officials and health care providers, 4) the disease has become an economic development problem, not just a public health problem, and 5) the disproportionate impact of the disease on female populations

DLO II. Explain steps Africa needs to take for successful economic and democratic development.

5. What are the challenges and opportunities associated with the US African Crisis Response Initiative (ACRI)?

Challenges: US should provide training to African troops who will do the actual peacekeeping; under-funded; dim prospects for benign intervention; intervention with a motive

Opportunities: Africanization of peacekeeping may significantly improve international relations across the continent (moving away from "colonial" interference, regional security fora); African solutions to African problems; Coalition of the willing

6. What problems does Sub-Saharan Africa have with its labor force? What needs to be done to combat these problems?

Lack of skills
Dying of diseases in mid-life
Fleeing (go to school abroad and never return)
Lack of infrastructure, i.e. education, schools, health care

7. What steps should Africa take to increase foreign investment in the region?

Guarantee security
Police itself, i.e. eliminate graft, stop the kleptocracy (system of corruption and theft)
Form governmental structures to build infrastructures, i.e. transportation, safety, military, banking, etc.
Vision (Pg 391, Metz)

DLO III. Identify required changes in US policy to encourage political and economic improvements .

8. How might the US respond to threats to West African oil production and export?

Mid-size producer…probably through diplomacy.

9. What national interests, if any, does the US have in Sub-Saharan Africa after the Cold War?

US has intervened in the region more than 20 times since 1990.
Arms market.
Humanitarian tragedies of traumatized and displaced populations – with floods of refugees.
International organizations & non-governmental organizations work on the continent.
Destabilizing factors (Pg 436-7, Catoire)

US interests are unsettled and will evolve with time. No African country can threaten US survival, security, or territorial integrity. The US has significant growing commercial interests in markets as outlets for US foreign trade and investment, additionally; the US receives approximately 16 percent of its petroleum products imported from Africa. US involvement has been characterized by crisis-responses. 12% of the US population are ancestors from this area. Also we have an interest in seeing democracy and development take root and promote stability. This enables US access the region for oil and other strategic resources

Sub-Saharan Africa represents a flank that is vulnerable to transnational threats as epidemic diseases, narcotics trafficking, organized crime, and serious environmental problems

16% of petroleum imports from Africa

US pursues the same objectives in Africa as elsewhere: promote regional stability (African Crisis Response Initiative [ACRI], economic prosperity (trade relations, agricultural development, debt relief) and democracy (democratic governance, civilian rule, civil society engagement), and to combat transnational threats

US response has been characterized by crisis response: conducting humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, noncombatant evacuation operations, peace support operations

US assistance has declined from $1.8 billion (1985) to $800 million (1998); Clinton first American president to make an extended visit to Sub Saharan Africa but his administration’s foreign policy record is characterized by a non-engaged president who administration despite good intentions has placed foreign policy on the back burner, cut financial assistance, is more cautious of US involvement in multilateral military operations (PPD 25 – peacekeeping vs peace building), focus has been on enhancing US-Africa trade

African institutional development is the single most important objective over the midterm

10. Does US involvement in the region need to increase? How should we demonstrate our commitment?

Trends indicate that we should.

Demonstrations of commitment:

Pres Bush should designate conflict prevention as a primary goal of US Foreign Policy (Pg 401, Stremlau)
Aid/New Funds
ACRI/IMETs
Greater flexibility for diplomats to broker domestic disputes and to provide quick support from democracy-building programs